A new research article developed within the POPENVIROS project has been published in the International Journal of Biometeorology (Springer). The study provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the relationship between daily ambient temperature and all‑cause mortality in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, Serbia, covering the period 2000–2020.
Using distributed lag non-linear models, the authors examined how both extreme and non‑extreme temperatures influence mortality risk. The findings reveal a strongly non-linear and asymmetric temperature–mortality relationship, with moderate cold emerging as the dominant contributor to temperature‑related mortality.
Key findings
- Cold-related mortality far exceeds heat-related mortality, accounting for 9.8% of all deaths.
- The largest burden is linked to moderately cold temperatures (0–10 °C), while both extreme cold and extreme heat contribute relatively small shares.
- Heat effects are short-lived and consistent with mortality displacement, whereas cold effects are delayed and sustained, often persisting for several weeks.
- Most temperature-related deaths occur outside extreme events, underscoring the importance of addressing everyday winter conditions.
Public health relevance
The results highlight that public health strategies focused solely on rare temperature extremes fail to capture the majority of temperature-related mortality. In temperate continental regions such as Central and Southeastern Europe, climate adaptation policies should prioritize continuous wintertime risk management, as well as improvements in housing quality and heating resilience.
🔗 Access the full article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-026-03295-1
Cite this article
Marinković, I. Temperature–mortality associations and attributable burden in Vojvodina, Serbia, 2000–2020. Int J Biometeorol 70, 232 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-026-03295-1
