The POPENVIROS project was represented at The Migration Conference in Bratislava,
where Milica Maričić, University of Belgrade, Serbia, presented the paper “Exploring the
impact of social and environmental factors on rural population and migrations: Evidence from
Serbia” Written together with Natalija Mirić, Principal Investigator of POPENVIROS.
The presentation was delivered online, contributing to the international exchange of research
on migration, population dynamics, and environmental change.
The study explores the extent to which social and environmental factors shape rural
population change and migration, with particular attention to the potential role of climate
change and its impacts on agriculture. As increasing temperatures and more frequent and
severe droughts place growing pressure on agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods, the
research examines whether these environmental pressures can contribute to the
depopulation of rural areas and stimulate outmigration.
The analysis focuses on Serbia and, more specifically, the Vojvodina region, selected as a
case study due to its importance as Serbia’s agricultural heartland and its predominantly flat,
lowland geography. The study covers 45 districts, using available data for the period
2002–2022.
The results indicate that social and climate factors have statistically significant effects on
rural population and migration, while the agricultural aspect does not show a statistically
significant direct effect. At the same time, climate factors significantly affect agricultural
factors, suggesting a potential indirect pathway through which environmental change may
influence rural population dynamics.
The findings indicate that a decline in social conditions is associated with decreasing rural
population and increasing migration balance, while rising temperatures are associated with a
decline in rural population. Overall, the model explains around 25% of the variability in rural
population and migration, while climate factors explain approximately 9% of the variability in
the agricultural aspect.
The authors hope that this research will contribute to the growing discussion on the
environment–migration nexus and encourage further research into how climate change,
social conditions, agriculture, and demographic change interact in rural areas.
